Thu, Oct 10, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Utah Hockey Club 5, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 16 | 19 | 28 | 13 | 526 |
| NYI | 112 | 06 | 39 | 00 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:10NYIAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal · Deflected, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 19:01UTALawson CrousePPAssists: Matias Maccelli, Logan Cooley · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 13:07UTABarrett HaytonAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Clayton Keller · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 1:03NYIBo HorvatAssists: Anthony Duclair, Noah Dobson · Slap, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 6:52NYIJean-Gabriel PageauSHAssists: Simon Holmstrom · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 7:37UTADylan GuentherPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 17:53NYIMaxim TsyplakovAssists: Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 18:06UTAJosh DoanAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Lawson Crouse · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–4
- OT 2:18UTADylan GuentherGWGAssists: Sean Durzi, Logan Cooley · Snap, 0.20 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:14UTALogan Cooley: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:10UTAMichael Carcone: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 15:10UTASean Durzi: Holding2 min
- P1 18:17NYIAlexander Romanov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:41UTAMichael Kesselring: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:41NYIKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:22UTAIan Cole: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton13:47
xG 1.14–0.42 (73%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Kerfoot – Crouse – Doan8:33
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Stenlund – Carcone – Maccelli10:07
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- McBain – Guenther – Cooley7:30
xG 0.13–0.45 (23%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Durzi14:14
xG 1.03–0.20 (83%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Välimäki – Kesselring9:37
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Välimäki – Kolyachonok2:14
xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Duclair – Horvat – Barzal11:14
xG 0.37–0.39 (49%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov11:04
xG 0.64–0.65 (49%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom8:15
xG 0.03–0.16 (15%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Wahlstrom – MacLean9:20
xG 0.07–0.77 (9%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Romanov13:28
xG 0.71–0.54 (57%)attempts 19–18goals 1–1
- Reilly – Mayfield9:45
xG 0.33–0.47 (42%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock14:56
xG 0.23–0.52 (31%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).