Thu, Oct 10, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 08 | 115 | 110 | 233 |
| MIN | 111 | 16 | 19 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:51MINMatt BoldyAssists: Marcus Johansson, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 2:00CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Cole Sillinger, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 16:35MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Marcus Johansson, Matt Boldy · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 9:58MINMats ZuccarelloPPGWGAssists: Matt Boldy, Kirill Kaprizov · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 17:06CBJZach WerenskiPPAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Kent Johnson · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:15MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:45CBJCole Sillinger: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:51CBJKent Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:33MINMarcus Johansson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:08CBJSean Monahan: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:50MINJake Middleton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Marchenko – Chinakhov13:31
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Aston-Reese6:35
xG 0.50–0.22 (69%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Labanc – Fantilli9:44
xG 0.17–0.44 (28%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Pyyhtia – Johnson – Sillinger12:20
xG 0.26–0.78 (25%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Provorov12:25
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Severson – Christiansen9:58
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Provorov – Christiansen2:32
xG 0.01–0.05 (15%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy11:48
xG 0.88–0.54 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Trenin11:41
xG 0.43–0.16 (73%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lauko – Khusnutdinov8:50
xG 0.15–0.01 (93%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi10:20
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Merrill12:23
xG 0.71–0.42 (63%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Brodin – Faber16:13
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton16:03
xG 0.66–0.67 (50%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).