Fri, Oct 11, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Winnipeg Jets 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 06 | 111 | 08 | 01 | 126 |
| WPG | 07 | 011 | 116 | 11 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:52CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 18:56WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- OT 0:38WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 12:36CHIPatrick Maroon: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:53CHIConnor Murphy: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:16WPGDylan DeMelo: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHall – Bertuzzi – Kurashev11:27
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Maroon – Athanasiou – Donato7:34
xG 0.20–0.07 (76%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Foligno – Teravainen – Bedard11:14
xG 0.62–0.50 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Anderson – Mikheyev10:49
xG 0.04–0.63 (7%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Vlasic15:35
xG 0.60–0.51 (54%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Murphy – Kaiser13:40
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Martinez – Jones17:42
xG 0.85–1.24 (41%)attempts 19–29goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestIafallo – Barron – Kupari6:28
xG 0.44–0.02 (95%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi15:19
xG 0.66–0.40 (62%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton10:37
xG 0.81–0.63 (56%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti9:16
xG 0.09–0.29 (24%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey18:43
xG 0.76–0.29 (72%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
- Miller – Fleury11:48
xG 0.69–0.58 (54%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Samberg – Pionk15:38
xG 0.50–0.93 (35%)attempts 11–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).