Fri, Oct 11, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
St. Louis Blues 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 17 | 16 | 19 | 322 |
| VGK | 29 | 113 | 16 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:47STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Philip Broberg · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 8:02VGKJack EichelAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Mark Stone · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 18:13VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 2:55VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Cole Schwindt · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 7:29STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 12:53VGKNicolas RoyGWGAssists: Shea Theodore, Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 15:04STLRobert ThomasAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:42STLJordan Kyrou: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:01VGKShea Theodore: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:51STLZachary Bolduc: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:48VGKNoah Hanifin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas3:22
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko7:33
xG 0.07–0.26 (22%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Kapanen – Joseph – Holloway10:45
xG 0.06–0.36 (15%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Bolduc10:00
xG 0.37–0.73 (34%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Broberg15:19
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Joseph10:22
xG 0.20–0.85 (20%)attempts 5–10goals 1–2
- Leddy – Parayko15:35
xG 0.33–1.23 (21%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Eichel13:13
xG 1.15–0.15 (88%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Pearson – Kolesar – Schwindt7:53
xG 0.62–0.06 (91%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Hertl – Dorofeyev – Holtz10:53
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Roy – Howden10:27
xG 0.29–0.43 (40%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Theodore17:18
xG 1.15–0.31 (79%)attempts 16–15goals 2–1
- Hanifin – Hague14:30
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- McNabb – Whitecloud15:43
xG 0.68–0.69 (50%)attempts 8–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).