Sat, Oct 12, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 2, Buffalo Sabres 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 111 | 04 | 225 |
| BUF | 26 | 213 | 18 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:01FLANate SchmidtAssists: A.J. Greer, Jesper Boqvist · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 16:46BUFJordan GreenwayAssists: Peyton Krebs · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 17:27BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Tuch, Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 1:34BUFHenri JokiharjuGWGAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Quinn · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 16:22BUFMattias SamuelssonAssists: Jason Zucker, Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P2 18:42FLASam BennettPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Evan Rodrigues · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 18:48BUFAlex TuchENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.58 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:26BUFJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:26FLAA.J. Greer: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:19FLAGustav Forsling: Holding2 min
- P2 2:23BUFJason Zucker: Interference2 min
- P2 5:42FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:15BUFJordan Greenway: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:02FLAGustav Forsling: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Greer – Boqvist – Samoskevich7:05
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell12:07
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Rodrigues11:14
xG 0.15–1.16 (12%)attempts 6–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMikkola – Balinskis2:01
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Balinskis2:04
xG 0.02–0.14 (12%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Balinskis8:45
xG 0.07–0.34 (17%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Kulich10:28
xG 0.89–0.07 (92%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs6:47
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Zucker – Greenway – McLeod10:36
xG 0.75–0.51 (60%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Benson5:04
xG 0.09–0.18 (33%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Samuelsson11:39
xG 1.10–0.01 (99%)attempts 17–5goals 2–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin10:46
xG 0.68–0.10 (87%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Byram – Power10:53
xG 0.37–0.35 (52%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).