Sat, Oct 12, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 04 | 012 | 19 | 125 |
| MTL | 27 | 04 | 215 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:37MTLEmil HeinemanPPAssists: Christian Dvorak, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 15:03MTLCole CaufieldGWGAssists: Mike Matheson, Juraj Slafkovský · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 3:50MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Lane Hutson, Kaiden Guhle · Snap, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 5:30OTTTim StützleAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 7:43MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovský · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:39MTLLane Hutson: Holding2 min
- P1 8:38OTTBrady Tkachuk: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:22OTTArtem Zub: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:04MTLJustin Barron: Interference2 min
- P2 3:24MTLEmil Heineman: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:24OTTTyler Kleven: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:33MTLJosh Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:29OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:00OTTJake Sanderson: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 8:37OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:30MTLJosh Anderson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Amadio – Pinto7:30
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle6:50
xG 0.11–0.02 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Gregor – Norris – Batherson6:56
xG 0.26–0.49 (34%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Cousins – MacEwen – Greig4:00
xG 0.02–0.33 (5%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamonic – Kleven9:01
xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub12:39
xG 0.13–0.44 (23%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Jensen – Chabot12:12
xG 0.34–0.86 (29%)attempts 13–12goals 1–3
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský8:16
xG 0.50–0.05 (90%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Armia – Dach – Newhook5:13
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans8:20
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Heineman – Kapanen4:55
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarron – Xhekaj6:49
xG 0.72–0.02 (98%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Guhle – Hutson2:28
xG 0.16–0.07 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Savard – Hutson8:34
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).