Sat, Oct 12, 2024·Madison Square Garden, New York
Utah Hockey Club 6, New York Rangers 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 16 | 410 | 08 | 12 | 626 |
| NYR | 18 | 311 | 114 | 01 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:43UTABarrett HaytonAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 8:38NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 1:48UTAJack McBainAssists: Vladislav Kolyachonok, Logan Cooley · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 3:51NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Adam Fox, Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 6:02UTAClayton KellerAssists: Alexander Kerfoot · Snap, 0.26 xG3–2
- P2 8:38UTAKevin StenlundAssists: Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P2 9:18NYRK'Andre MillerAssists: Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.00 xG4–3
- P2 13:59UTADylan GuentherPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Barrett Hayton · Snap, 0.14 xG5–3
- P2 17:59NYRBraden SchneiderAssists: Jacob Trouba, Will Cuylle · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–4
- P3 12:56NYRWill CuylleAssists: Adam Fox, Kaapo Kakko · Deflected, 0.17 xG5–5
- OT 4:05UTAClayton KellerGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.27 xG6–5
Penalties (13)
- P2 2:07UTAKevin Stenlund: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 4:54NYRMatt Rempe: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 5:09UTAConnor Ingram: Holding2 min
- P2 9:23UTAMichael Kesselring: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:23NYRSam Carrick: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 9:23UTAJack McBain: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:23NYRAdam Edstrom: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:23UTAJack McBain: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 9:23NYRAdam Edstrom: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 11:27NYRWill Cuylle: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:37NYRK'Andre Miller: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:55UTAIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:26NYRVincent Trocheck: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Guenther – Cooley3:21
xG 0.12–0.01 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Crouse – Doan8:48
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:26
xG 0.60–0.67 (47%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Stenlund – Carcone – Maccelli8:41
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 11–9goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Kolyachonok2:56
xG 0.54–0.07 (88%)attempts 8–4goals 2–2
- Sergachev – Välimäki2:02
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Durzi4:28
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Smith – Zibanejad12:55
xG 0.83–0.32 (72%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Chytil – Kakko – Cuylle8:51
xG 0.59–0.14 (80%)attempts 15–6goals 3–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière17:31
xG 0.60–0.76 (44%)attempts 16–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Miller16:26
xG 1.30–0.20 (87%)attempts 25–7goals 2–0
- Trouba – Schneider14:16
xG 0.64–0.68 (49%)attempts 15–16goals 1–2
- Jones – Mancini12:56
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).