Sat, Oct 12, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Seattle Kraken 5, Minnesota Wild 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 010 | 212 | 210 | 02 | 2 | 534 |
| MIN | 114 | 19 | 213 | 02 | 1 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:22MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Marco Rossi · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 1:06MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 1:46SEAJordan EberleAssists: Jared McCann, Brandon Montour · Poke, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 8:15SEAJordan EberlePPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–2
- P3 1:41MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Marco Rossi, Brock Faber · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 2:47SEATye KartyeAssists: Brandon Tanev, Yanni Gourde · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 12:33MINRyan HartmanAssists: Matt Boldy, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 16:34SEAJared McCannAssists: Ryker Evans, Andre Burakovsky · Slap, 0.04 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mats Zuccarello scored
- 2. SEA Oliver Bjorkstrand scored
- 3. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 4. SEA Jordan Eberle scored
- 5. MIN Matt Boldy stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:18SEABrandon Tanev: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:46SEAJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:15MINJonas Brodin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:50MINZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen – Beniers11:42
xG 0.09–0.11 (46%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Gourde – Tanev – Kartye8:38
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Eberle – McCann – Wright10:40
xG 0.44–0.53 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Burakovsky11:32
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Dunn2:56
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Montour16:27
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Borgen – Evans13:52
xG 0.31–0.38 (44%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi10:58
xG 0.73–0.01 (98%)attempts 15–4goals 2–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Boldy3:32
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Foligno – Trenin – Khusnutdinov2:23
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Trenin7:17
xG 0.14–0.21 (39%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Faber20:35
xG 0.81–0.33 (71%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton15:52
xG 0.51–0.50 (51%)attempts 14–16goals 1–2
- Bogosian – Merrill12:03
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).