Sat, Oct 12, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Columbus Blue Jackets 6, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 28 | 37 | 18 | 623 |
| COL | 110 | 213 | 17 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:38CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 7:45CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Jake Christiansen · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 19:52COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Ivan Ivan, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 1:56CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Kevin Labanc, Daniil Tarasov · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 2:11COLMiles WoodAssists: Parker Kelly, Calvin de Haan · Snap, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 3:42COLCasey MittelstadtPPAssists: Ross Colton, Cale Makar · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–3
- P2 4:33CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P2 9:49CBJEgor ChinakhovGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Kirill Marchenko · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 18:40COLRoss ColtonAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–4
- P3 19:48CBJSean MonahanENAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Egor Chinakhov · Wrist, 0.81 xG6–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:41COLChris Wagner: Interference2 min
- P1 2:41CBJMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:41COLJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:36CBJCole Sillinger: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:31CBJDamon Severson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:01CBJErik Gudbranson: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:21CBJDamon Severson: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:26COLMikko Rantanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:21COLCasey Mittelstadt: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:48COLNathan MacKinnon: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sillinger won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Marchenko – Chinakhov11:38
xG 0.94–0.28 (77%)attempts 17–10goals 3–0
- Pyyhtia – Johnson – Sillinger13:46
xG 0.67–0.53 (56%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Labanc – Fantilli7:40
xG 0.23–0.23 (51%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Kuraly – Monahan – Olivier2:10
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Christiansen14:52
xG 0.61–0.45 (57%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Werenski – Provorov17:03
xG 0.66–0.86 (44%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Johnson – Gudbranson11:37
xG 0.36–0.58 (38%)attempts 9–18goals 2–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Rantanen – Mittelstadt2:56
xG 0.38–0.03 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kiviranta – Ivan6:01
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Wood – Kelly – O'Connor8:53
xG 0.61–0.60 (50%)attempts 18–9goals 1–2
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Kovalenko10:49
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar14:00
xG 0.77–0.40 (66%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Manson – Girard12:28
xG 0.47–0.64 (42%)attempts 15–9goals 0–2
- de Haan – Malinski10:58
xG 0.23–0.46 (33%)attempts 18–10goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).