Sat, Oct 12, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 110 | 27 | 23 | 520 |
| EDM | 010 | 114 | 114 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:50CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Taylor Hall, Wyatt Kaiser · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 4:55EDMCorey PerryAssists: Jeff Skinner, Mattias Ekholm · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 10:19CHISeth JonesPPAssists: Connor Bedard, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 13:58CHIConnor BedardGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 5:35CHITeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Seth Jones, Connor Bedard · Snap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 10:01EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 19:13CHITeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Alex Vlasic, Seth Jones · Slap, 0.05 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 2:50CHIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:05EDMMattias Janmark: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:55CHIRyan Donato: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:25EDMConnor McDavid: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:16CHISeth Jones: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:55EDMLeon Draisaitl: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDickinson – Anderson – Mikheyev9:22
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Foligno – Teravainen – Bedard13:12
xG 0.39–0.58 (40%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
- Hall – Bertuzzi – Kurashev10:47
xG 0.27–0.55 (33%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
- Maroon – Athanasiou – Donato9:03
xG 0.06–0.65 (8%)attempts 1–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Vlasic5:34
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Murphy – Kaiser13:30
xG 0.44–0.70 (39%)attempts 10–25goals 1–0
- Martinez – Jones12:01
xG 0.21–0.49 (29%)attempts 8–21goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Ryan – Podkolzin3:56
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid12:11
xG 0.71–0.32 (69%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Henrique – Brown – Janmark6:17
xG 0.24–0.07 (76%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Skinner – Draisaitl – Arvidsson10:37
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Emberson13:35
xG 1.18–0.22 (84%)attempts 31–5goals 0–2
- Nurse – Dermott14:22
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard17:26
xG 0.63–0.58 (52%)attempts 28–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).