Sat, Oct 12, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Anaheim Ducks 2, San Jose Sharks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 010 | 010 | 210 | 230 |
| SJS | 08 | 012 | 010 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 11:00ANAIsac LundeströmGWGAssists: Brock McGinn, Brett Leason · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P3 18:25ANATrevor ZegrasENAssists: Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:04ANATristan Luneau: Interference2 min
- P1 8:14SJSBarclay Goodrow: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:15SJSHenry Thrun: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:38SJSKlim Kostin: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:38ANAFrank Vatrano: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:59SJSCody Ceci: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:00SJSWill Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:09ANAMason McTavish: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:09SJSNico Sturm: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:19ANAMason McTavish: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Terry7:51
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- McGinn – Lundeström – Leason7:53
xG 0.28–0.26 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Fabbri – Zegras – McTavish6:41
xG 0.17–0.54 (24%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Killorn – Gauthier – Carlsson8:32
xG 0.11–0.58 (16%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Zellweger7:12
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Gudas – Fowler2:46
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Mintyukov12:42
xG 0.09–0.48 (16%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Granlund – Eklund9:20
xG 1.04–0.07 (94%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Dellandrea – Sturm4:28
xG 0.70–0.15 (82%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Wennberg – Kunin8:30
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Kostin – Zetterlund – Smith8:29
xG 0.14–0.52 (22%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Walman10:46
xG 0.77–0.45 (63%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Benning – Thrun9:11
xG 0.60–0.29 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Ferraro – Rutta12:15
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).