Sun, Oct 13, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 1, Winnipeg Jets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 010 | 09 | 01 | 127 |
| WPG | 19 | 014 | 011 | 11 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:06MINJake MiddletonAssists: Marco Rossi · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 19:58WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Adam Lowry · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- OT 0:51WPGKyle ConnorPPGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:40MINYakov Trenin: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:56WPGMorgan Barron: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:40WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:21WPGRasmus Kupari: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:54MINZach Bogosian: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Foligno – Trenin – Khusnutdinov9:27
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lauko – Ohgren7:34
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi14:11
xG 0.63–0.76 (46%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Boldy11:34
xG 0.19–0.49 (28%)attempts 8–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Faber16:14
xG 0.89–0.47 (65%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Merrill – Chisholm11:54
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Brodin16:33
xG 0.27–1.03 (21%)attempts 11–27goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestIafallo – Barron – Kupari7:40
xG 0.33–0.03 (92%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton9:03
xG 0.58–0.29 (67%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti10:00
xG 0.14–0.15 (47%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi15:51
xG 0.65–0.81 (44%)attempts 20–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk15:57
xG 1.14–0.26 (82%)attempts 29–11goals 0–0
- Miller – Fleury12:49
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey17:34
xG 0.39–1.13 (25%)attempts 16–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).