Sun, Oct 13, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Seattle Kraken 0, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 06 | 09 | 010 | 025 |
| DAL | 213 | 06 | 04 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:17DALSam SteelGWGAssists: Colin Blackwell, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 16:30DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Jamie Benn, Logan Stankoven · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:33SEARyker Evans: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:33DALMason Marchment: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:56DALWyatt Johnston: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:01SEAJaden Schwartz: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:14DALMason Marchment: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:36SEARyker Evans: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00DALEvgenii Dadonov: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:23DALJason Robertson: Holding2 min
- P3 15:15SEABrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Wright6:43
xG 0.54–0.34 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Tolvanen – Beniers6:07
xG 0.31–0.14 (68%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Gourde – Tanev – Kartye5:44
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Burakovsky3:08
xG 0.16–0.12 (59%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Mahura8:41
xG 0.75–0.42 (64%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Borgen – Evans4:16
xG 0.14–0.07 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Montour14:15
xG 0.44–0.60 (42%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Steel – Bäck5:13
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment9:27
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Hintz – Robertson8:39
xG 0.42–0.43 (50%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Benn – Stankoven – Johnston7:48
xG 0.17–0.24 (42%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Lundkvist7:10
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lyubushkin3:47
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Heiskanen – Lundkvist5:44
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).