Sun, Oct 13, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 4, Edmonton Oilers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 111 | 313 | 429 |
| EDM | 110 | 06 | 010 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16EDMJeff SkinnerAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 7:30CGYRasmus AnderssonUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 7:06CGYAnthony ManthaGWGAssists: Martin Pospisil, Rasmus Andersson · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 9:27CGYJustin KirklandAssists: Kevin Bahl, Rasmus Andersson · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 19:36CGYConnor ZaryENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.54 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:43EDMZach Hyman: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:35EDMDerek Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:38EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:34CGYAndrei Kuzmenko: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Kuzmenko – Honzek7:49
xG 0.73–0.32 (69%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Mantha – Pospisil8:07
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Coronato6:13
xG 0.26–0.10 (71%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary11:32
xG 0.36–0.36 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl18:32
xG 0.90–0.56 (62%)attempts 20–23goals 3–0
- Barrie – Pachal11:01
xG 0.82–0.54 (60%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Weegar – Miromanov13:30
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid2:02
xG 0.05–0.01 (81%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Henrique – Brown – Podkolzin8:39
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Perry – Janmark – Ryan5:04
xG 0.05–0.14 (27%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Arvidsson9:22
xG 0.14–0.36 (28%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard17:36
xG 0.92–0.52 (64%)attempts 26–13goals 1–1
- Kulak – Stecher11:56
xG 0.39–0.88 (31%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Nurse – Dermott15:09
xG 0.26–0.88 (23%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).