Sun, Oct 13, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Anaheim Ducks 1, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 110 | 05 | 08 | 123 |
| VGK | 16 | 018 | 28 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:17VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Keegan Kolesar · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 11:49ANATroy TerryUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 5:18VGKTomas HertlPPGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–2
- P3 14:09VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Keegan Kolesar · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 4:09ANATrevor Zegras: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:43ANAUrho Vaakanainen: Interference2 min
- P3 4:15ANARyan Strome: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:35VGKBrayden McNabb: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:39ANAAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Terry10:44
xG 0.97–0.75 (56%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
- Killorn – Gauthier – Carlsson11:17
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- McGinn – Lundeström – Leason7:46
xG 0.38–0.44 (46%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Zegras – McTavish13:11
xG 0.55–0.86 (39%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Vaakanainen11:46
xG 0.63–0.33 (66%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Fowler – Luneau13:06
xG 0.92–0.84 (52%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Mintyukov15:18
xG 0.53–0.60 (47%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Roy – Howden4:59
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hertl – Olofsson – Dorofeyev4:53
xG 0.14–0.05 (71%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Hertl – Dorofeyev – Holtz4:17
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Roy – Howden – Holtz6:39
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Whitecloud13:14
xG 0.95–0.25 (79%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Hague14:31
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Theodore14:57
xG 0.70–1.31 (35%)attempts 16–25goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).