Mon, Oct 14, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Los Angeles Kings 7, Ottawa Senators 8 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 27 | 311 | 27 | 01 | 726 |
| OTT | 111 | 416 | 212 | 12 | 841 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:12LAKKevin FialaPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Brandt Clarke · Slap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 9:07LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Alex Turcotte, Mikey Anderson · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 10:25OTTJake SandersonPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 5:31LAKAdrian KempePPAssists: Brandt Clarke, Anze Kopitar · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 10:26OTTZack MacEwenAssists: Nick Jensen · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 11:16LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Kyle Burroughs, Adrian Kempe · Deflected, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 15:13OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
- P2 15:32OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
- P2 16:25LAKKevin FialaPPAssists: Brandt Clarke, Anze Kopitar · Snap, 0.05 xG5–4
- P2 17:52OTTZack MacEwenAssists: Adam Gaudette · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–5
- P3 3:38LAKAlex LaferriereUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG6–5
- P3 5:25OTTClaude GirouxPPAssists: Shane Pinto, Thomas Chabot · Backhand, 0.18 xG6–6
- P3 9:18OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.11 xG6–7
- P3 14:26LAKTanner JeannotUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG7–7
- OT 0:56OTTJosh NorrisGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.16 xG7–8
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:48OTTZack MacEwen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 6:48OTTZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:48LAKTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 9:51LAKKevin Fiala: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:12LAKWarren Foegele: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:14OTTZack MacEwen: Interference2 min
- P2 4:19OTTShane Pinto: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 12:01OTTDrake Batherson: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:01LAKTanner Jeannot: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:08LAKKyle Burroughs: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 15:59OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 4:00LAKBrandt Clarke: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:25LAKAlex Laferriere: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 8:28LAKMikey Anderson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:02OTTJosh Norris: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Danault – Jeannot – Moore8:39
xG 0.15–0.30 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Fiala – Foegele – Byfield8:22
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Lewis – Turcotte – Lee3:57
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Laferriere9:46
xG 0.53–1.00 (35%)attempts 10–19goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Burroughs – Gavrikov11:21
xG 0.64–0.64 (50%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Edmundson – Gavrikov4:49
xG 0.04–0.04 (51%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Anderson2:07
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Amadio – Pinto9:25
xG 1.01–0.40 (72%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle10:06
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Cousins – Gaudette – MacEwen4:09
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 7–1goals 2–0
- Gregor – Norris – Batherson7:48
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Sanderson6:05
xG 0.83–0.29 (74%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Jensen – Kleven2:26
xG 0.28–0.05 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Chabot2:17
xG 0.20–0.01 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).