Mon, Oct 14, 2024·Madison Square Garden, New York
Detroit Red Wings 1, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 014 | 09 | 132 |
| NYR | 110 | 110 | 28 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:45NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Artemi Panarin, Zac Jones · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:58DETDylan LarkinAssists: Justin Holl, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 17:05NYRChris KreiderPPGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 4:51NYRReilly SmithAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 18:38NYRMika ZibanejadENAssists: Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:16NYRAlexis Lafrenière: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:36DETMoritz Seider: Interference2 min
- P1 12:44DETAustin Watson: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:23NYRChris Kreider: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:26DETBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:23NYRJonny Brodzinski: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:57DETJustin Holl: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:39DETAlex Lyon: Delaying game2 min
- P3 8:07NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chytil won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Compher – Raymond8:10
xG 0.68–0.44 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kane – Larkin – DeBrincat9:10
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Copp – Rasmussen – Berggren6:59
xG 0.27–0.23 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Kane – Larkin – Raymond2:04
xG 0.01–0.05 (19%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Johansson10:13
xG 0.72–0.16 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Holl – Edvinsson12:33
xG 0.65–0.77 (45%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Chiarot – Seider11:41
xG 0.41–0.65 (39%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Brodzinski – Edstrom6:56
xG 0.37–0.13 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière11:50
xG 0.72–0.49 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Chytil – Kakko – Cuylle9:39
xG 0.43–0.67 (39%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Kreider – Smith – Zibanejad6:43
xG 0.08–0.72 (10%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Schneider12:26
xG 0.85–0.54 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Fox – Miller12:19
xG 0.29–0.52 (36%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Jones – Mancini11:47
xG 0.42–0.90 (32%)attempts 11–12goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).