Mon, Oct 14, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 211 | 19 | 310 | 630 |
| MTL | 16 | 213 | 09 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:54PITLars EllerAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 16:49PITRickard RakellAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Michael Bunting · Snap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 18:16MTLKaiden GuhleAssists: Mike Matheson, Nick Suzuki · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 2:51MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 14:26MTLEmil HeinemanUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 16:23PITLars EllerUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 7:47PITKevin HayesGWGAssists: Noel Acciari, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.32 xG4–3
- P3 11:32PITKris LetangAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Matt Grzelcyk · Snap, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 18:50PITEvgeni MalkinENAssists: Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.33 xG6–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:19MTLJoel Armia: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:00PITRyan Graves: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:28MTLKaiden Guhle: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:28PITJesse Puljujarvi: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:46PITLars Eller: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rakell – Bunting12:50
xG 1.29–0.26 (83%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Hayes – Acciari – Glass6:34
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Eller – Puljujarvi – O'Connor8:42
xG 0.49–0.38 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Beauvillier12:21
xG 0.67–0.86 (44%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson13:55
xG 2.43–0.63 (80%)attempts 27–14goals 3–1
- Graves – Shea12:17
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Letang – Grzelcyk15:36
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Heineman – Kapanen7:50
xG 0.44–0.07 (87%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans8:25
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:55
xG 0.40–1.13 (26%)attempts 12–17goals 1–2
- Armia – Dach – Newhook9:56
xG 0.24–1.26 (16%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Hutson11:37
xG 0.57–0.47 (55%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Matheson – Guhle6:02
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Barron – Xhekaj6:07
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).