Tue, Oct 15, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 17 | 17 | 012 | 226 |
| WSH | 17 | 312 | 03 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:02WSHJakub VranaAssists: Andrew Mangiapane · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 17:49VGKVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Tomas Hertl, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 3:06WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 5:16WSHAliaksei ProtasGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.26 xG1–3
- P2 6:13WSHJakob ChychrunAssists: Nic Dowd, John Carlson · Bat, 0.18 xG1–4
- P2 7:17VGKJack EichelAssists: Mark Stone, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:44WSHMartin Fehérváry: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:33VGKNicolas Roy: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:16VGKNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:36VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:53WSHBrandon Duhaime: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:10WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min
- P3 5:26WSHBrandon Duhaime: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Eichel10:54
xG 0.69–0.33 (67%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Hertl – Olofsson – Dorofeyev9:07
xG 0.28–0.47 (37%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Pearson – Kolesar – Schwindt7:36
xG 0.10–0.69 (13%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Roy – Howden – Holtz10:00
xG 0.29–1.01 (22%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Theodore13:11
xG 0.71–0.18 (80%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Hague14:41
xG 0.67–0.71 (48%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- McNabb – Whitecloud12:54
xG 0.16–1.42 (10%)attempts 11–18goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Raddysh – Duhaime11:10
xG 1.02–0.23 (81%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas9:24
xG 0.68–0.21 (77%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Vrana – Mangiapane – Lapierre5:52
xG 0.09–0.18 (32%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael10:25
xG 0.14–0.69 (17%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin2:42
xG 0.55–0.03 (95%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun3:37
xG 0.42–0.08 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Carlson – Chychrun9:10
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).