Tue, Oct 15, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Florida Panthers 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 38 | 16 | 422 |
| CBJ | 06 | 216 | 116 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:41CBJCole SillingerSHAssists: Kent Johnson · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 10:25FLAAnton LundellAssists: Sam Reinhart, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 11:22CBJSean MonahanAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Kirill Marchenko · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 11:59FLADmitry KulikovAssists: Niko Mikkola, Anton Lundell · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 19:58FLASam ReinhartAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 15:12FLAEetu LuostarinenGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Niko Mikkola · Snap, 0.21 xG4–2
- P3 17:21CBJJames van RiemsdykAssists: Damon Severson, Kevin Labanc · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:48CBJKevin Labanc: Interference2 min
- P1 16:08CBJMathieu Olivier: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:04CBJJordan Harris: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:33FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P3 1:32FLASam Bennett: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Rodrigues
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Boqvist – Samoskevich2:40
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Greer – Rodrigues – Boqvist5:12
xG 0.04–0.05 (43%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Greer – Gadjovich – Boqvist2:21
xG 0.06–0.17 (25%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Rodrigues4:50
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Mikkola10:35
xG 0.25–0.06 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Kulikov – Schmidt2:18
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Boqvist7:51
xG 0.12–0.08 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Marchenko – Chinakhov10:00
xG 1.18–0.16 (88%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Aston-Reese5:38
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Pyyhtia – Johnson – Sillinger9:56
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 7–11goals 0–3
- Olivier – Aston-Reese – Fantilli2:30
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Provorov14:09
xG 0.98–0.24 (80%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Severson – Christiansen9:25
xG 0.37–0.22 (62%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
- Gudbranson – Harris6:50
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).