Tue, Oct 15, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Seattle Kraken 7, Nashville Predators 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 313 | 011 | 411 | 735 |
| NSH | 212 | 113 | 08 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:37SEARyker EvansAssists: Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 7:07SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 14:47NSHMichael McCarronAssists: Juuso Parssinen, Alexandre Carrier · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P1 17:00NSHTommy NovakAssists: Mark Jankowski, Luke Evangelista · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P1 19:27SEABrandon TanevAssists: Brandon Montour, Yanni Gourde · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 17:17NSHBrady SkjeiAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 1:19SEAJaden SchwartzGWGAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Chandler Stephenson · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 2:40SEAJordan EberleAssists: Jared McCann, Jamie Oleksiak · Snap, 0.14 xG5–3
- P3 11:57SEAJared McCannAssists: Matty Beniers, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–3
- P3 17:56SEAAdam LarssonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG7–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:59SEAJared McCann: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:36NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:03NSHLuke Evangelista: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:07NSHJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:07SEATye Kartye: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:12SEAJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Tanev – Kartye8:02
xG 0.51–0.14 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 2–1
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Bjorkstrand8:28
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 2–1
- Eberle – McCann – Wright7:19
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Burakovsky – Tolvanen – Beniers10:14
xG 0.27–0.47 (37%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Montour16:51
xG 0.84–0.32 (72%)attempts 15–12goals 3–0
- Larsson – Dunn14:14
xG 0.53–0.46 (53%)attempts 13–17goals 2–1
- Borgen – Evans11:12
xG 0.12–0.38 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg9:59
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Smith6:15
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg2:23
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Sissons2:00
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Carrier2:09
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Fabbro4:51
xG 0.17–0.05 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Josi – Fabbro7:10
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).