Tue, Oct 15, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 212 | 110 | 08 | 00 | 330 |
| EDM | 07 | 211 | 112 | 11 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:46PHIMatvei MichkovPPAssists: Owen Tippett, Morgan Frost · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 9:21PHIMatvei MichkovPPAssists: Morgan Frost, Travis Konecny · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 6:26EDMAdam HenriqueAssists: Mattias Janmark, Brett Kulak · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 14:01EDMConnor BrownAssists: Jeff Skinner, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 19:37PHIBobby BrinkAssists: Egor Zamula, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 16:18EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 0:56EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.28 xG3–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:02EDMZach Hyman: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 4:46EDMZach Hyman: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 7:38EDMCorey Perry: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:50PHIBobby Brink: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:50EDMZach Hyman: Elbowing2 min
- P2 3:01PHIJett Luchanko: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:42PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:08EDMBrett Kulak: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:28EDMEvan Bouchard: Holding2 min
- P2 19:52EDMLeon Draisaitl: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:56PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:02PHISean Couturier: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:02EDMTroy Stecher: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:04PHIJoel Farabee: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:04EDMCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Luchanko
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTippett – Frost – Michkov3:56
xG 0.28–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Konecny – Foerster – Luchanko9:18
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Laughton – Hathaway – Poehling7:12
xG 0.29–0.68 (30%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
- Couturier – Farabee – Brink4:36
xG 0.05–0.44 (10%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Drysdale5:43
xG 0.67–0.48 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Zamula11:00
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Johnson – Ristolainen3:01
xG 0.01–0.10 (7%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Skinner – Brown4:26
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid11:55
xG 0.62–0.46 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson – Podkolzin5:36
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Perry – Janmark – Ryan2:26
xG 0.11–0.25 (31%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Bouchard2:41
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Nurse – Stecher9:10
xG 0.67–0.46 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard12:26
xG 0.41–0.40 (50%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).