Wed, Oct 16, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Los Angeles Kings 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 09 | 014 | 211 | 234 |
| TOR | 312 | 27 | 17 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:54TORBobby McMannAssists: Max Domi, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 8:49TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 17:12TORBobby McMannGWGAssists: William Nylander, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 7:56TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Jake McCabe, Max Domi · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 18:31TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–5
- P3 2:42LAKAlex TurcotteAssists: Andre Lee · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 9:03LAKKevin FialaAssists: Brandt Clarke, Trevor Lewis · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 17:16TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:41LAKAndre Lee: Holding2 min
- P1 4:09TORMorgan Rielly: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:08LAKMikey Anderson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:22TORTimothy Liljegren: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:22LAKBrandt Clarke: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:09TORJake McCabe: Holding2 min
- P3 11:22TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P3 15:58LAKKyle Burroughs: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Byfield
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Laferriere8:51
xG 0.97–0.37 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Jeannot – Turcotte – Lee5:48
xG 0.40–0.05 (88%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Danault – Foegele – Moore5:16
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Lewis – Fiala – Byfield5:52
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestAnderson – Clarke2:28
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Burroughs – Englund6:33
xG 0.31–0.05 (85%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Jones – Clarke8:39
xG 0.41–0.20 (68%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Nylander – McMann10:18
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 7–11goals 3–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies9:40
xG 0.58–1.04 (36%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Tavares – Holmberg – Robertson8:49
xG 0.00–0.48 (0%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Reaves – Lorentz – Kampf7:06
xG 0.03–0.57 (5%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – McCabe2:03
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- McCabe – Benoit2:16
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Tanev – Rielly12:47
xG 0.11–0.34 (25%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).