Thu, Oct 17, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Los Angeles Kings 4, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 112 | 18 | 212 | 432 |
| MTL | 19 | 011 | 07 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:02MTLJustin BarronAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 18:20LAKMikey AndersonAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, Adrian Kempe · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 1:37LAKAlex LaferriereGWGAssists: Jordan Spence, Alex Turcotte · Tip-in, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 17:02LAKAndreas EnglundAssists: Quinton Byfield · Snap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 19:12LAKAdrian KempeENAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.82 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:34LAKAndreas Englund: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 4:28LAKTrevor Lewis: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:42MTLKirby Dach: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:03LAKCaleb Jones: Interference2 min
- P2 19:07LAKKevin Fiala: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:51MTLArber Xhekaj: Holding2 min
- P3 7:10MTLLane Hutson: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 18:12LAKTrevor Moore: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Byfield10:42
xG 0.60–0.04 (93%)attempts 16–5goals 2–1
- Foegele – Turcotte – Laferriere8:37
xG 0.55–0.14 (79%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Danault – Fiala – Moore9:54
xG 0.66–0.71 (48%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Lewis – Jeannot – Lee6:58
xG 0.00–0.47 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Anderson13:50
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Jones – Clarke9:25
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Spence3:11
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Heineman – Kapanen6:56
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans10:48
xG 0.58–0.59 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský14:02
xG 0.42–0.72 (37%)attempts 14–21goals 1–0
- Armia – Dach – Newhook8:44
xG 0.29–0.81 (27%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestXhekaj – Hutson4:28
xG 0.37–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Guhle – Xhekaj4:22
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Matheson – Barron5:58
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).