Thu, Oct 17, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Vancouver Canucks 3, Florida Panthers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 110 | 011 | 13 | 333 |
| FLA | 14 | 115 | 09 | 00 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:42VANTeddy BluegerAssists: Kiefer Sherwood, Jake DeBrusk · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 11:53FLAJesper BoqvistAssists: Mackie Samoskevich, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 6:30VANQuinn HughesAssists: Danton Heinen, Nils Aman · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 19:00FLAAnton LundellPPAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 2:09VANJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:47FLACarter Verhaeghe: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:30FLAUvis Balinskis: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 9:13FLAUvis Balinskis: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:13VANTeddy Blueger: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:59VANFilip Hronek: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- OT 1:51FLAEvan Rodrigues: Roughing2 min
- OT 1:51VANJake DeBrusk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – DeBrusk2:41
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Bains10:20
xG 0.63–0.58 (52%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- Blueger – DeBrusk – Sherwood7:00
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Garland – Pettersson – Hoglander13:32
xG 0.41–0.62 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes20:24
xG 1.07–0.85 (56%)attempts 28–20goals 1–1
- Desharnais – Brannstrom8:54
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Myers – Soucy16:33
xG 0.28–0.54 (34%)attempts 7–21goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Rodrigues16:09
xG 0.84–0.62 (57%)attempts 24–14goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell14:12
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Greer – Boqvist – Samoskevich11:29
xG 0.66–0.59 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Boqvist9:25
xG 0.44–0.02 (95%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Ekblad – Forsling17:36
xG 0.86–0.44 (66%)attempts 21–16goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola17:20
xG 0.85–1.07 (44%)attempts 21–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).