Thu, Oct 17, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
New York Islanders 0, St. Louis Blues 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 014 | 010 | 03 | 034 |
| STL | 06 | 014 | 08 | 12 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 2:04STLJake NeighboursGWGAssists: Philip Broberg, Joel Hofer · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–1
Penalties (5)
- P2 5:02STLMathieu Joseph: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:11STLPierre-Olivier Joseph: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:15NYIMathew Barzal: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:00STLJake Neighbours: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:00NYIAlexander Romanov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Horvat – Barzal11:56
xG 0.79–0.27 (75%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom9:19
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov13:13
xG 0.59–0.84 (41%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Wahlstrom – MacLean7:01
xG 0.13–0.58 (19%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Romanov16:09
xG 0.99–0.62 (62%)attempts 24–14goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock16:47
xG 0.39–0.34 (54%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Reilly – Mayfield11:02
xG 0.33–0.62 (34%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Neighbours – Bolduc9:07
xG 0.36–0.17 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Faksa – Kapanen – Toropchenko7:15
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Saad – Kyrou – Thomas14:58
xG 0.64–0.68 (48%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- Schenn – Joseph – Holloway10:12
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJoseph – Kessel10:10
xG 0.77–0.18 (81%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Faulk – Broberg17:04
xG 0.63–0.81 (44%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Suter – Parayko19:42
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).