Fri, Oct 18, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
San Jose Sharks 3, Winnipeg Jets 8
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 18 | 16 | 322 |
| WPG | 415 | 114 | 37 | 836 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:59WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Colin Miller, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 9:25WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 11:43SJSTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Jake Walman, Mikael Granlund · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 13:31WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Cole Perfetti · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P1 18:48WPGNeal PionkPPGWGAssists: Alex Iafallo, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P2 1:46WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Neal Pionk, Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–5
- P2 10:28SJSLuke KuninAssists: Carl Grundstrom, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 9:50WPGCole PerfettiPPAssists: Alex Iafallo, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–6
- P3 10:09SJSFabian ZetterlundAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–6
- P3 12:55WPGCole PerfettiPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Vladislav Namestnikov · Slap, 0.08 xG3–7
- P3 19:27WPGVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Neal Pionk, Cole Perfetti · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–8
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:38SJSAlexander Wennberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:24SJSJan Rutta: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:13WPGNino Niederreiter: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:58SJSFabian Zetterlund: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 11:19SJSMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:33WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min
- P2 17:25SJSLuke Kunin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:01SJSJake Walman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:10SJSMatt Benning: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Wennberg – Gushchin11:08
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Kunin – Grundstrom – Dellandrea8:52
xG 0.27–0.38 (42%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
- Smith – Kostin – Sturm6:20
xG 0.11–0.39 (21%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Granlund – Zetterlund11:37
xG 0.27–0.76 (26%)attempts 11–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Walman11:52
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Ferraro – Rutta11:17
xG 0.19–0.27 (41%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Benning – Thrun12:21
xG 0.13–1.18 (10%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestIafallo – Barron – Kupari6:24
xG 1.02–0.28 (79%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti6:37
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 3–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton9:59
xG 0.41–0.08 (83%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:11
xG 0.33–0.61 (35%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Fleury10:33
xG 0.49–0.11 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Samberg – Pionk11:27
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 16–8goals 3–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:55
xG 0.76–0.62 (55%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).