Sat, Oct 19, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Edmonton Oilers 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 011 | 010 | 110 | 131 |
| DAL | 02 | 19 | 313 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:34DALMatt DuchenePPAssists: Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 12:06DALMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Mason Marchment, Colin Blackwell · Snap, 0.25 xG0–2
- P3 13:16DALRoope HintzAssists: Logan Stankoven, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.20 xG0–3
- P3 17:38EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 18:01DALJason RobertsonENAssists: Logan Stankoven, Roope Hintz · Backhand, 0.79 xG1–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:46DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:04DALRoope Hintz: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:31EDMTroy Stecher: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Stankoven
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid15:04
xG 1.57–0.65 (71%)attempts 31–9goals 0–1
- Perry – Ryan – Podkolzin6:32
xG 0.21–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Nugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson2:35
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Arvidsson8:48
xG 0.05–0.18 (23%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard17:10
xG 1.20–0.63 (65%)attempts 27–9goals 0–1
- Kulak – Emberson14:05
xG 0.25–0.66 (27%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Nurse – Stecher18:17
xG 0.72–1.30 (36%)attempts 17–23goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Stankoven14:00
xG 1.12–0.21 (84%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Duchene – Marchment – Bourque4:37
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Duchene – Blackwell – Marchment4:03
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Bäck – Blümel5:38
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Lyubushkin6:49
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Lundkvist2:57
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lundkvist7:16
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).