Sat, Oct 19, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Florida Panthers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 17 | 113 | 15 | 01 | 326 |
| FLA | 013 | 215 | 115 | 16 | 449 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:27VGKTanner PearsonAssists: Nicolas Roy · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 1:09FLASam ReinhartAssists: Anton Lundell, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 14:15VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Tanner Pearson, Nicolas Roy · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 19:20FLASam BennettPPAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Anton Lundell · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 7:30VGKBrett HowdenUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 12:43FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Sam Reinhart, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 4:43FLAGustav ForslingGWGAssists: Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 7:49FLAA.J. Greer: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:14VGKNicolas Roy: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:09VGKBrayden McNabb: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Boqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSchwindt – Holtz – Brisson7:32
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Howden3:20
xG 0.06–0.04 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pearson – Hertl – Dorofeyev2:41
xG 0.05–0.09 (35%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Pearson – Kolesar – Roy10:39
xG 0.55–0.67 (45%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Whitecloud16:31
xG 0.59–0.48 (55%)attempts 15–23goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Hague17:18
xG 0.53–0.74 (42%)attempts 14–18goals 2–1
- Pietrangelo – Theodore16:34
xG 0.23–0.85 (22%)attempts 13–24goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Boqvist – Samoskevich10:46
xG 1.05–0.36 (75%)attempts 21–12goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Rodrigues13:58
xG 0.62–0.18 (78%)attempts 31–8goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell13:23
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 15–14goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling19:27
xG 1.14–0.31 (79%)attempts 32–21goals 2–1
- Kulikov – Mikkola16:17
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 18–5goals 0–1
- Schmidt – Boqvist5:32
xG 0.21–0.40 (34%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).