Sat, Oct 19, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Washington Capitals 6, New Jersey Devils 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 317 | 28 | 08 | 14 | 637 |
| NJD | 110 | 210 | 29 | 02 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45NJDErik HaulaAssists: Stefan Noesen, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 6:01WSHTom WilsonAssists: Connor McMichael · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 10:14WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Tom Wilson, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.31 xG2–1
- P1 14:18WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson, Dylan Strome · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 0:34NJDNico HischierAssists: Stefan Noesen · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 0:44NJDNico HischierAssists: Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 9:15WSHAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Aliaksei Protas · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
- P2 12:33WSHDylan StromeAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 3:39NJDDawson MercerAssists: Nico Hischier, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–4
- P3 12:28NJDDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier · Snap, 0.09 xG5–5
- OT 4:00WSHTom WilsonGWGAssists: Dylan Strome, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.11 xG6–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:42WSHJakob Chychrun: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:40NJDErik Haula: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:33NJDStefan Noesen: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:33WSHBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:59WSHRasmus Sandin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:23NJDCurtis Lazar: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Dubois – McMichael10:15
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 8–7goals 2–1
- Vrana – Mangiapane – Lapierre6:34
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas11:37
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 15–14goals 2–2
- Dowd – Raddysh – Duhaime11:59
xG 0.49–0.94 (34%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Sandin11:32
xG 0.70–0.38 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
- McIlrath – Fehérváry3:17
xG 0.24–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Carlson – Fehérváry5:05
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Hischier – Mercer10:45
xG 0.80–0.21 (79%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Lazar – Bastian – Cotter5:59
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Tatar – Haula – Noesen7:01
xG 0.16–0.15 (50%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Haula – Meier – Mercer3:00
xG 0.04–0.06 (44%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Casey6:02
xG 0.48–0.04 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Dillon – Hamilton15:13
xG 0.82–0.78 (51%)attempts 16–24goals 1–2
- Siegenthaler – Nemec5:34
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).