Sat, Oct 19, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Montréal Canadiens 3, New York Islanders 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 17 | 13 | 03 | 2 | 324 |
| NYI | 27 | 012 | 114 | 03 | 3 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:32NYIBo HorvatPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 16:58NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Noah Dobson, Maxim Tsyplakov · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 19:56MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 0:59MTLLogan MaillouxAssists: Jake Evans, Josh Anderson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 15:24NYIAnders LeeAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Adam Pelech · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 17:50MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 2. MTL Cole Caufield stopped
- 3. NYI Maxim Tsyplakov stopped
- 4. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
- 5. NYI Bo Horvat stopped
- 6. MTL Lane Hutson stopped
- 7. NYI Kyle Palmieri scored
- 8. MTL Oliver Kapanen scored
- 9. NYI Simon Holmstrom scored
- 10. MTL Emil Heineman scored
- 11. NYI Jean-Gabriel Pageau stopped
- 12. MTL Alex Newhook stopped
- 13. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
- 14. MTL Mike Matheson stopped
- 15. NYI Alexander Romanov stopped
- 16. MTL Juraj Slafkovský stopped
- 17. NYI Noah Dobson scored
- 18. MTL Logan Mailloux stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:49MTLLane Hutson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:51NYIMaxim Tsyplakov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:12MTLKirby Dach: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:46MTLLogan Mailloux: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:47MTLJoel Armia: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:47MTLJustin Barron: High sticking2 min
- OT 1:27MTLKirby Dach: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Anderson – Evans7:42
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Heineman – Kapanen5:29
xG 0.12–0.23 (35%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Armia – Dach – Newhook8:54
xG 0.44–0.72 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Anderson – Dvorak – Kapanen3:17
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 0–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Matheson – Barron15:57
xG 0.61–0.61 (50%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Savard – Struble9:06
xG 0.32–0.58 (36%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Mailloux – Hutson16:04
xG 0.52–1.13 (32%)attempts 9–25goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Barzal – Holmstrom2:20
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom8:38
xG 0.48–0.21 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Duclair – Horvat – Barzal11:16
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Lee – Pageau2:21
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Romanov16:18
xG 0.89–0.39 (70%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Reilly – Mayfield10:01
xG 0.81–0.84 (49%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Pelech – Pulock14:44
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).