Sat, Oct 19, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Minnesota Wild 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 113 | 06 | 215 | 334 |
| CBJ | 04 | 012 | 18 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:40MINMarco RossiAssists: Yakov Trenin, Marcus Foligno · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P3 2:52MINKirill KaprizovPPGWGAssists: Brock Faber, Matt Boldy · Slap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 8:26MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Jon Merrill · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–0
- P3 18:35CBJEgor ChinakhovAssists: Sean Monahan, David Jiricek · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:01CBJMathieu Olivier: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:09MINYakov Trenin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:42MINYakov Trenin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 2:20CBJJordan Harris: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 2:46CBJCole Sillinger: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Fantilli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy8:58
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi12:36
xG 1.00–0.66 (60%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
- Lauko – Khusnutdinov – Ohgren2:56
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Foligno – Trenin – Khusnutdinov3:58
xG 0.22–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Chisholm9:58
xG 0.78–0.09 (90%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Middleton – Faber14:02
xG 0.48–0.21 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Chisholm – Faber2:06
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Marchenko – Chinakhov11:13
xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Kuraly – Marchenko2:09
xG 0.06–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Kuraly – Fantilli2:12
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Danforth – Aston-Reese – Fantilli11:01
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Severson – Jiricek2:24
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Jiricek6:20
xG 0.08–0.19 (29%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Severson – Christiansen8:56
xG 0.08–0.34 (18%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).