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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 19, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis

Carolina Hurricanes 3, St. Louis Blues 4

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

3

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.

STL winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR11908213340
STL0431114419

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:21CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P2 10:22STLMathieu JosephAssists: Brayden Schenn, Pierre-Olivier Joseph · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 11:35STLJake NeighboursAssists: Zachary Bolduc · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P2 13:31STLDylan HollowayAssists: Philip Broberg, Mathieu Joseph · Poke, 0.14 xG1–3
  5. P3 1:39CARShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
  6. P3 2:57CARJack RoslovicAssists: Jack Drury, Jaccob Slavin · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
  7. P3 4:26STLKasperi KapanenGWGAssists: Jake Neighbours, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 10:59STLJake Neighbours: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 2:04CARShayne Gostisbehere: Interference2 min
  3. P2 6:02CARShayne Gostisbehere: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 13:58CARSebastian Aho: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 13:58STLRobert Thomas: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 1:09STLColton Parayko: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  7. P3 5:41CARSean Walker: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 8:57STLPavel Buchnevich: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 13:46CARJaccob Slavin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  10. P3 0:00STLBrayden Schenn: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 0:00CARAndrei Svechnikov: Cross checking2 min
  12. P3 0:00CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARSTL
40Shots on goal19
3.3Expected goals1.7
67Shot attempts34
33Faceoffs won38
3Power plays4
14Penalty minutes10
13Hits27
5Blocked shots12
11Giveaways18
9Takeaways3

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Carolina Hurricanes

Forward lines

  1. bestRobinson – Drury – Blake5:21

    xG 0.68–0.12 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1

  2. Staal – Martinook – Carrier7:58

    xG 0.20–0.05 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0

  3. Roslovic – Robinson – Drury2:00

    xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0

  4. Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis12:02

    xG 0.57–0.44 (56%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestGostisbehere – Walker10:03

    xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0

  2. Burns – Slavin14:37

    xG 1.21–0.99 (55%)attempts 20–13goals 2–3

  3. Orlov – Chatfield12:11

    xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1

St. Louis Blues

Forward lines

  1. bestSaad – Kyrou – Thomas11:30

    xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1

  2. Buchnevich – Kapanen – Neighbours2:57

    xG 0.16–0.09 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0

  3. Buchnevich – Neighbours – Bolduc4:09

    xG 0.08–0.21 (28%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0

  4. Faksa – Walker – Kapanen6:54

    xG 0.13–0.28 (31%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestFaulk – Broberg12:08

    xG 0.40–0.24 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0

  2. Suter – Faulk2:12

    xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0

  3. Joseph – Kessel8:43

    xG 0.30–0.40 (42%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 1.7 xGCAR 3.3 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 80/100 · #257 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.92 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 32% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.

STL winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).