Sat, Oct 19, 2024·United Center, Chicago
Buffalo Sabres 4, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 29 | 18 | 15 | 422 |
| CHI | 012 | 213 | 012 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:39BUFTage ThompsonAssists: JJ Peterka, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 11:31BUFBeck MalenstynAssists: Connor Clifton, Peyton Krebs · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 6:28CHICraig SmithAssists: Lukas Reichel, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 12:48CHICraig SmithAssists: Lukas Reichel, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 18:37BUFJJ PeterkaGWGAssists: Tage Thompson, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 19:34BUFRyan McLeodENAssists: Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.77 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:35CHITJ Brodie: Holding2 min
- P1 15:59BUFJJ Peterka: Holding2 min
- P2 6:47CHISeth Jones: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:55CHITJ Brodie: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:28CHIPhilipp Kurashev: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:28CHIIlya Mikheyev: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:28BUFPeyton Krebs: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:28CHITyler Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:28BUFBeck Malenstyn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Peterka11:47
xG 0.39–0.08 (83%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Kulich8:54
xG 0.33–0.49 (40%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Benson8:48
xG 0.04–0.33 (10%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Krebs8:50
xG 0.30–0.79 (27%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestByram – Power14:31
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
- Jokiharju – Dahlin13:44
xG 0.10–0.54 (16%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Clifton – Samuelsson11:02
xG 0.33–0.91 (27%)attempts 6–19goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHall – Bertuzzi – Kurashev9:13
xG 0.26–0.05 (83%)attempts 9–1goals 0–1
- Foligno – Teravainen – Bedard13:02
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
- Smith – Athanasiou – Reichel6:16
xG 0.55–0.56 (49%)attempts 10–7goals 2–2
- Dickinson – Donato – Mikheyev9:05
xG 0.07–0.14 (35%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Vlasic16:13
xG 0.61–0.11 (84%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Brodie – Kaiser11:08
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Jones – Kaiser2:11
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).