Sat, Oct 19, 2024·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Calgary Flames 1, Seattle Kraken 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 07 | 07 | 00 | 122 |
| SEA | 05 | 15 | 011 | 12 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:51CGYBlake ColemanPPAssists: Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 12:25SEAChandler StephensonPPAssists: Jared McCann, Jaden Schwartz · Slap, 0.16 xG1–1
- OT 0:48SEAJordan EberleGWGAssists: Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:27CGYMatt Coronato: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:31SEAJosh Mahura: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:19SEAJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min
- P2 1:45CGYNazem Kadri: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 10:40CGYKevin Bahl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:53CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:26SEAAndre Burakovsky: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:37CGYAndrei Kuzmenko: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Coronato – Kuzmenko11:06
xG 1.18–0.18 (86%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary9:08
xG 0.90–0.30 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Mantha – Pospisil6:35
xG 0.04–0.08 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Klapka4:22
xG 0.01–0.12 (8%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBean – Pachal10:10
xG 1.85–0.33 (85%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Barrie – Weegar13:01
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl15:35
xG 0.15–0.38 (28%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Tanev – Tolvanen3:34
xG 0.26–0.05 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Wright6:10
xG 0.16–0.17 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Tolvanen – Beniers6:14
xG 0.04–0.17 (20%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Bjorkstrand10:41
xG 0.40–0.70 (37%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Montour11:23
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Montour – Mahura4:35
xG 0.01–0.01 (55%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Larsson – Oleksiak4:52
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).