Sun, Oct 20, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 216 | 117 | 342 |
| WPG | 011 | 316 | 310 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:30PITKevin HayesPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Jesse Puljujarvi · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 5:21PITLars EllerAssists: Erik Karlsson, Cody Glass · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 12:18WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Colin Miller · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 17:36WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Colin Miller, Logan Stanley · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 19:29WPGVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 1:39PITLars EllerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 4:20WPGAdam LowryGWGAssists: Mason Appleton, Josh Morrissey · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 7:41WPGMason AppletonAssists: Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–5
- P3 17:30WPGNino NiederreiterENAssists: Josh Morrissey, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.80 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:53PITMarcus Pettersson: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:39WPGColin Miller: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:13WPGAdam Lowry: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:13PITDrew O'Connor: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:05PITBryan Rust: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEller – Beauvillier – Glass10:58
xG 1.06–0.21 (83%)attempts 24–7goals 2–0
- Crosby – Rust – O'Connor13:22
xG 1.63–1.32 (55%)attempts 23–17goals 0–2
- Hayes – Acciari – Puustinen7:08
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Malkin – Rakell – Puljujarvi9:32
xG 0.67–0.88 (43%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Shea13:35
xG 0.99–0.61 (62%)attempts 20–13goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Pettersson17:47
xG 1.18–1.48 (44%)attempts 26–19goals 1–1
- Letang – Grzelcyk16:54
xG 0.55–1.04 (35%)attempts 18–22goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi14:53
xG 0.94–0.55 (63%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Iafallo – Barron – Gustafsson8:43
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti10:12
xG 0.33–0.61 (35%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton11:17
xG 0.69–1.37 (34%)attempts 10–19goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk17:40
xG 1.83–1.00 (65%)attempts 27–21goals 1–1
- Miller – Stanley13:45
xG 0.56–0.89 (39%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey16:11
xG 0.68–1.72 (28%)attempts 11–31goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).