Sun, Oct 20, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 4, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 212 | 06 | 24 | 422 |
| SJS | 16 | 013 | 07 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:23COLRoss ColtonPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 16:37COLRoss ColtonGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 18:25SJSWilliam EklundPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 9:57COLJoel KivirantaAssists: Josh Manson, John Ludvig · Backhand, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 18:23COLCale MakarENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard · Snap, 0.38 xG4–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:00SJSWill Smith: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 7:38SJSMikael Granlund: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:07COLJosh Manson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:07COLJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:07SJSLuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:09SJSJan Rutta: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:29SJSMikael Granlund: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:13COLLogan O'Connor: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:13SJSHenry Thrun: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:13COLLogan O'Connor: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:30COLMiles Wood: Interference2 min
- P2 12:20COLCalvin de Haan: Holding2 min
- P2 15:17COLJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sturm won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKiviranta – Stienburg – Ivan5:04
xG 0.62–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Mittelstadt – Kovalenko – O'Connor10:05
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Colton11:30
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Wood – Kelly – Ritchie7:18
xG 0.01–0.27 (3%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Ludvig8:09
xG 0.59–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Girard – Makar12:21
xG 0.51–0.18 (75%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- de Haan – Malinski11:32
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Wennberg – Eklund9:18
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Kunin – Gushchin – Smith7:11
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Granlund – Zetterlund10:29
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Dellandrea – Sturm7:15
xG 0.03–0.81 (3%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Ceci – Thrun3:04
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Thrun – Thompson11:23
xG 0.05–0.17 (25%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Ceci – Walman11:40
xG 0.39–0.65 (38%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).