Tue, Oct 22, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Minnesota Wild 5, Florida Panthers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 25 | 311 | 06 | 522 |
| FLA | 09 | 112 | 04 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:40MINMarco RossiAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Jake Middleton · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 12:02MINMarcus JohanssonGWGAssists: Matt Boldy, Jonas Brodin · Slap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 2:40MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson Ek · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 11:19FLASam BennettAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Matthew Tkachuk · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 13:58MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Jake Middleton · Snap, 0.08 xG4–1
- P2 16:05MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Jake Middleton · Snap, 0.04 xG5–1
Penalties (2)
- P2 0:57FLASam Bennett: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:01FLASam Bennett: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Gaudreau – Trenin11:18
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy11:44
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi12:21
xG 0.66–0.85 (44%)attempts 13–19goals 2–0
- Lauko – Khusnutdinov – Ohgren7:31
xG 0.05–0.34 (13%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Brodin17:38
xG 0.72–0.48 (60%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Merrill – Chisholm11:56
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Brodin – Middleton2:09
xG 0.03–0.24 (12%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk14:32
xG 1.02–0.45 (69%)attempts 19–13goals 1–2
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell14:56
xG 0.55–0.52 (51%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Greer – Rodrigues – Boqvist2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Boqvist – Samoskevich10:59
xG 0.36–0.40 (48%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Mikkola14:47
xG 0.84–0.36 (70%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Schmidt – Boqvist7:41
xG 0.48–0.04 (93%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Forsling16:30
xG 0.76–0.35 (69%)attempts 23–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).