Tue, Oct 22, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Rangers 7, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 413 | 113 | 219 | 745 |
| MTL | 111 | 16 | 06 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:54NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 2:05NYRJonny BrodzinskiAssists: Adam Edstrom, Braden Schneider · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 6:40NYRReilly SmithGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P1 11:05NYRFilip ChytilPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Kaapo Kakko · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–0
- P1 12:52MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Josh Anderson, David Savard · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–1
- P2 5:35MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Kirby Dach · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–2
- P2 8:57NYRBraden SchneiderAssists: Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–2
- P3 15:41NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Will Cuylle, Sam Carrick · Snap, 0.24 xG6–2
- P3 16:19NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Will Cuylle, Victor Mancini · Snap, 0.03 xG7–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:28MTLJosh Anderson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:09MTLJake Evans: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:09NYRKaapo Kakko: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:02NYRAdam Fox: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:00MTLMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:53NYRK'Andre Miller: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:55MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:55NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:11MTLMike Matheson: Instigator2 min
- P3 7:11NYRJacob Trouba: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:11MTLMike Matheson: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:11MTLMike Matheson: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 13:21NYRWill Cuylle: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestChytil – Kakko – Cuylle9:55
xG 1.11–0.31 (78%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière12:00
xG 0.97–0.43 (69%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Carrick – Brodzinski – Edstrom8:50
xG 0.60–0.27 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Kreider – Smith – Zibanejad7:59
xG 0.30–0.70 (30%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Schneider12:33
xG 1.48–0.19 (89%)attempts 20–11goals 4–0
- Fox – Miller14:36
xG 1.79–0.90 (67%)attempts 21–13goals 0–0
- Lindgren – Mancini14:48
xG 0.81–0.62 (57%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Armia – Newhook – Kapanen7:15
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Pezzetta – Heineman5:49
xG 0.17–0.27 (38%)attempts 10–5goals 0–3
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield8:17
xG 0.23–0.52 (30%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans12:11
xG 0.74–1.48 (33%)attempts 14–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Barron11:22
xG 0.54–0.47 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Savard – Hutson5:13
xG 0.27–0.33 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
- Struble – Mailloux4:44
xG 0.25–0.92 (21%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).