Tue, Oct 22, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 3, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 314 | 04 | 324 |
| STL | 111 | 09 | 19 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:11STLBrandon SaadAssists: Robert Thomas, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 8:12WPGNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Cole Perfetti · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 13:58WPGColin MillerAssists: Cole Perfetti, Nikolaj Ehlers · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 17:40WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Dylan Samberg, Cole Perfetti · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 5:15STLBrandon SaadAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 19:11WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:49STLRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:39STLBrayden Schenn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:10WPGDylan Samberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Buchnevich won the faceoff against Namestnikov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestIafallo – Barron – Kupari5:04
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti10:22
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi13:50
xG 0.53–0.78 (41%)attempts 17–14goals 0–2
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton9:55
xG 0.36–0.68 (34%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Samberg – Pionk16:24
xG 0.58–0.63 (48%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Miller – Stanley12:23
xG 0.47–0.64 (43%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey14:37
xG 0.36–0.81 (31%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Kyrou – Thomas10:03
xG 0.72–0.28 (72%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Schenn – Joseph – Holloway11:14
xG 0.76–0.63 (55%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
- Buchnevich – Neighbours – Bolduc6:32
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Faksa – Kapanen – Texier6:15
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Parayko19:06
xG 1.09–0.62 (64%)attempts 24–23goals 2–1
- Faulk – Broberg16:21
xG 0.82–0.48 (63%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- Joseph – Kessel11:15
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).