Tue, Oct 22, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 013 | 09 | 28 | 13 | 333 |
| EDM | 19 | 110 | 011 | 05 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 2:30EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Poke, 0.32 xG0–2
- P3 0:44CARShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Martin Necas, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 13:29CARMartin NecasAssists: Eric Robinson, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 4:53CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Martin Necas, Shayne Gostisbehere · Slap, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:58CARJalen Chatfield: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:12EDMLeon Draisaitl: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:43CARJack Drury: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:13CARSeth Jarvis: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:37CAREric Robinson: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:01EDMTravis Dermott: High sticking2 min · PPG
- OT 4:25CARBrent Burns: Holding the stick2 min
- OT 4:25EDMZach Hyman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Svechnikov – Jarvis8:24
xG 1.31–0.50 (72%)attempts 20–7goals 0–1
- Necas – Robinson – Kotkaniemi2:04
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Roslovic – Necas – Kotkaniemi8:32
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier6:22
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield14:51
xG 0.74–0.21 (78%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin16:00
xG 0.98–0.90 (52%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Walker13:22
xG 0.59–0.54 (52%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Draisaitl – Arvidsson12:00
xG 0.99–0.24 (80%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid12:57
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Perry – Ryan – Podkolzin3:33
xG 0.15–0.04 (81%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Brown – Janmark6:00
xG 0.03–0.35 (7%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard17:03
xG 1.01–0.50 (67%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Kulak – Stecher14:47
xG 0.37–0.66 (36%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Nurse – Dermott12:36
xG 0.39–1.17 (25%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).