Tue, Oct 22, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
San Jose Sharks 1, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 010 | 010 | 18 | 128 |
| ANA | 013 | 117 | 210 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:56ANATroy TerryPPAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Cutter Gauthier · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 4:55SJSMikael GranlundPPAssists: William Eklund, Jack Thompson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 5:36ANALeo CarlssonPPGWGAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Mason McTavish · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 18:09ANAAlex KillornENAssists: Isac Lundeström · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:57ANARobby Fabbri: High sticking2 min
- P1 3:49SJSHenry Thrun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:13SJSTy Dellandrea: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:17SJSMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:29SJSWill Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:33ANARyan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:33SJSJake Walman: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:52ANABrian Dumoulin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:05SJSWill Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:48SJSCody Ceci: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWennberg – Zetterlund – Gushchin9:27
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Dellandrea – Smith8:18
xG 0.70–0.40 (64%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Kunin – Kostin – Sturm5:23
xG 0.19–0.57 (24%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Granlund – Eklund12:42
xG 0.39–0.92 (30%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestThrun – Thompson9:15
xG 0.83–0.42 (66%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Walman – Thompson3:53
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Ceci – Thrun5:00
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Terry9:33
xG 0.80–0.30 (73%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Killorn – Lundeström – Zegras8:09
xG 0.60–0.14 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Gauthier – Carlsson10:08
xG 0.42–0.55 (43%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- McGinn – Leason – McTavish8:14
xG 0.21–0.49 (29%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Zellweger14:38
xG 1.31–0.50 (72%)attempts 27–14goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Mintyukov13:17
xG 0.56–0.45 (55%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Gudas – LaCombe12:05
xG 0.36–0.68 (34%)attempts 9–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).