Tue, Oct 22, 2024·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Colorado Avalanche 3, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 15 | 217 | 06 | 328 |
| SEA | 012 | 15 | 110 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:32COLJoel KivirantaAssists: Sam Malinski · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 11:57SEAJared McCannUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 14:56COLJoel KivirantaAssists: Cale Makar, Ivan Ivan · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 19:52COLNathan MacKinnonPPGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 19:55SEARyker EvansPPAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 6:43SEAEeli Tolvanen: Interference2 min
- P2 19:24SEAChandler Stephenson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:29SEAJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min
- P3 18:00COLJoel Kiviranta: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Rantanen – Colton14:14
xG 0.89–0.52 (63%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Kiviranta – Stienburg – Ivan4:11
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Mittelstadt – Kovalenko – O'Connor6:51
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Wood – Kiviranta – Ivan3:35
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Girard13:40
xG 0.75–0.49 (61%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Toews – Makar18:09
xG 0.83–0.87 (49%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
- de Haan – Malinski11:53
xG 0.17–0.32 (34%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Tanev – Kartye6:00
xG 0.53–0.07 (89%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Wright9:16
xG 0.55–0.24 (70%)attempts 7–9goals 1–2
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Tanev2:30
xG 0.09–0.03 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Bjorkstrand7:09
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorgen – Mahura9:06
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Oleksiak – Montour15:27
xG 0.93–0.72 (56%)attempts 26–16goals 0–1
- Larsson – Montour2:56
xG 0.07–0.05 (58%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).