Thu, Oct 24, 2024·Madison Square Garden, New York
Florida Panthers 3, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 210 | 19 | 010 | 329 |
| NYR | 110 | 05 | 010 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:44FLAAnton LundellAssists: Sam Reinhart, Eetu Luostarinen · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 2:42FLACarter VerhaegheGWGAssists: Gustav Forsling · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 4:44NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 6:59FLASam BennettAssists: Niko Mikkola, Dmitry Kulikov · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:03FLASam Reinhart: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:05FLACarter Verhaeghe: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:16NYRKaapo Kakko: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:48FLADmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:33NYRJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:57FLACarter Verhaeghe: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Rodrigues – Boqvist7:17
xG 0.50–0.06 (89%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk10:23
xG 0.70–0.34 (67%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell10:42
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Tkachuk – Boqvist2:01
xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling14:40
xG 0.85–0.39 (68%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola13:26
xG 0.87–0.71 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Schmidt – Boqvist5:22
xG 0.38–0.31 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière8:01
xG 0.83–0.36 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Trocheck – Lafrenière – Cuylle2:40
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Carrick – Brodzinski – Edstrom6:12
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Panarin4:44
xG 0.10–0.33 (23%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Miller14:27
xG 1.41–0.85 (62%)attempts 22–14goals 1–2
- Trouba – Schneider12:36
xG 0.56–0.60 (48%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Schneider – Mancini2:57
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).