Fri, Oct 25, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Ottawa Senators 4, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 312 | 116 | 011 | 439 |
| VGK | 211 | 18 | 39 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:40OTTAdam GaudetteAssists: Cole Reinhardt, Jacob Bernard-Docker · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 12:15OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Nick Jensen, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 17:23VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Tanner Pearson, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P1 17:44VGKNicolas HagueAssists: Alexander Holtz · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P1 18:34OTTDrake BathersonUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 6:40VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Noah Hanifin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 17:44OTTAdam GaudettePPAssists: Claude Giroux, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 16:49VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–4
- P3 17:49VGKKeegan KolesarGWGAssists: Tanner Pearson, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–5
- P3 18:14VGKIvan BarbashevENAssists: Jack Eichel, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.77 xG4–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:54OTTNick Jensen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:09VGKKeegan Kolesar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 1:39VGKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min
- P3 14:55OTTNick Cousins: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Tkachuk – Stützle4:01
xG 0.27–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Gaudette – MacEwen – Reinhardt5:37
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Cousins – Gregor – Greig5:12
xG 0.13–0.03 (79%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Norris – Batherson13:40
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Sanderson15:59
xG 0.74–0.48 (60%)attempts 23–15goals 0–3
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven12:45
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Jensen – Chabot16:22
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Pearson – Kolesar – Roy8:52
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Hertl – Howden – Dorofeyev11:28
xG 0.23–0.28 (46%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel14:05
xG 0.44–0.60 (42%)attempts 12–14goals 1–2
- Schwindt – Holtz – Brisson5:16
xG 0.05–0.29 (15%)attempts 3–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hanifin16:10
xG 0.92–0.30 (75%)attempts 21–17goals 3–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud2:04
xG 0.03–0.08 (27%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hague – Whitecloud9:08
xG 0.14–0.27 (33%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).