Fri, Oct 25, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 213 | 112 | 04 | 11 | 430 |
| NJD | 18 | 114 | 112 | 02 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Adam Pelech, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 11:36NJDNico HischierAssists: Jesper Bratt, Brenden Dillon · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 14:03NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Noah Dobson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 5:31NJDCurtis LazarAssists: Paul Cotter, Jonas Siegenthaler · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 11:28NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Alexander Romanov, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 18:31NJDJesper BrattUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 1:09NYIBo HorvatGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Ryan Pulock · Snap, 0.22 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:16NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:05NJDBrenden Dillon: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:55NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:55NYIScott Mayfield: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:55NJDKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:10NJDJesper Bratt: Interference2 min
- P2 18:56NYIRyan Pulock: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:59NJDDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov11:46
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 2–1
- Lee – Pageau – Wahlstrom8:10
xG 0.53–0.53 (50%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Foudy – MacLean6:05
xG 0.18–0.34 (34%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Horvat – Barzal – Holmstrom12:15
xG 0.28–0.59 (32%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Mayfield5:30
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Pelech – Pulock14:46
xG 0.32–0.54 (37%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Dobson – Romanov14:49
xG 0.42–0.71 (37%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Hischier – Mercer9:42
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Meier – Hughes – Mercer2:03
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Haula – Noesen – Cotter6:43
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes9:39
xG 0.34–0.31 (53%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Kovacevic13:01
xG 0.58–0.09 (86%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Dillon – Hamilton9:37
xG 0.50–0.19 (73%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Pesce – Hughes15:08
xG 0.63–0.60 (51%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).