Fri, Oct 25, 2024·United Center, Chicago
Nashville Predators 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 214 | 110 | 334 |
| CHI | 113 | 18 | 08 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:55CHICraig SmithAssists: Lukas Reichel, Nolan Allan · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 5:14CHIConnor BedardAssists: Alex Vlasic, Connor Murphy · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 13:41NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Alexandre Carrier · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 16:59NSHGustav NyquistSHAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Cole Smith · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 13:07NSHBrady SkjeiPPGWGAssists: Tommy Novak, Luke Evangelista · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:37NSHBrady Skjei: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:12NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:12CHIPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:43CHIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:13CHINolan Allan: Holding2 min
- P2 10:58NSHMarc Del Gaizo: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:50NSHCole Smith: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:44NSHMichael McCarron: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:16CHIJason Dickinson: Interference2 min
- P3 4:31CHIIlya Mikheyev: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:19CHIWyatt Kaiser: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:31NSHLuke Evangelista: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bedard won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Marchessault – Sissons7:56
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg7:28
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Novak – Evangelista5:08
xG 0.27–0.21 (57%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- McCarron – Smith – L'Heureux5:26
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Del Gaizo4:59
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Schenn – Lauzon4:22
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Skjei – Carrier4:04
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Reichel – Bedard2:02
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Bertuzzi – Kurashev6:34
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Reichel – Bedard2:00
xG 0.01–0.06 (17%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Maroon – Smith – Reichel3:50
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Vlasic11:18
xG 0.64–0.48 (57%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Jones – Vlasic2:43
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Jones – Kaiser10:25
xG 0.49–0.55 (47%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).