Sat, Oct 26, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Minnesota Wild 5, Philadelphia Flyers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 314 | 25 | 526 |
| PHI | 23 | 13 | 417 | 723 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:18PHISean CouturierAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 3:51PHINick SeelerAssists: Travis Konecny, Matvei Michkov · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 14:54MINBrock FaberAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 15:27MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Declan Chisholm · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 18:16PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Sean Couturier, Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 19:56MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 2:18MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Zach Bogosian, Jonas Brodin · Tip-in, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 4:55PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Morgan Frost, Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–4
- P3 8:26PHISean CouturierAssists: Travis Konecny, Nick Seeler · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–5
- P3 13:28MINJake MiddletonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–5
- P3 17:36PHIRasmus RistolainenGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny · Backhand, 0.23 xG5–6
- P3 19:00PHISean CouturierENAssists: Noah Cates, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.78 xG5–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:55PHIJoel Farabee: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:25PHIScott Laughton: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:00PHIGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:09PHIJoel Farabee: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 4:15MINMarco Rossi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:57PHIGarnet Hathaway: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:57MINMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:31MINMatt Boldy: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Gaudreau – Trenin9:12
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0
- Lauko – Khusnutdinov – Ohgren3:11
xG 0.10–0.13 (42%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi12:49
xG 0.17–0.37 (32%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy11:29
xG 0.46–1.09 (29%)attempts 10–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Merrill – Chisholm11:14
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Middleton – Faber16:56
xG 0.40–0.54 (43%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Bogosian – Brodin15:46
xG 0.42–1.29 (25%)attempts 14–16goals 1–4
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Michkov11:42
xG 1.55–0.52 (75%)attempts 18–13goals 4–1
- Tippett – Poehling – Foerster2:48
xG 0.34–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Cates – Foerster4:41
xG 0.10–0.08 (57%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Laughton – Hathaway – Farabee4:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Drysdale13:33
xG 1.14–0.32 (78%)attempts 13–14goals 2–1
- Ristolainen – Sanheim17:56
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 1–2
- Johnson – Zamula10:49
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).