Sat, Oct 26, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Nashville Predators 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 08 | 210 | 19 | 01 | 328 |
| NSH | 06 | 114 | 211 | 12 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:53CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Adam Fantilli, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 6:42CBJZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Mathieu Olivier · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 10:40NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 0:26NSHCole SmithAssists: Michael McCarron, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 3:07CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Kevin Labanc, Sean Kuraly · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 4:09NSHAlexandre CarrierAssists: Zachary L'Heureux · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 1:44NSHJonathan MarchessaultGWGAssists: Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:59CBJZach Werenski: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:59NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:43CBJKirill Marchenko: Holding2 min
- P2 9:20NSHTommy Novak: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:13CBJKirill Marchenko: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:11NSHColton Sissons: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danforth won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestPyyhtia – Chinakhov – Fantilli10:26
xG 0.66–0.24 (74%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Kuraly – Labanc6:41
xG 0.33–0.04 (89%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Monahan – Marchenko – Sillinger10:40
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Olivier – Danforth – Aston-Reese10:15
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Provorov18:10
xG 0.88–0.46 (66%)attempts 20–18goals 2–1
- Severson – Christiansen13:07
xG 0.19–0.46 (30%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Johnson – Harris11:04
xG 0.13–0.46 (22%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Marchessault – Forsberg12:12
xG 0.81–0.43 (65%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Nyquist – Novak10:18
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- McCarron – Smith – L'Heureux9:00
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Jankowski – Sissons – Evangelista5:40
xG 0.04–0.26 (13%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Skjei11:14
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Josi – Skjei4:48
xG 0.12–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Carrier15:04
xG 0.23–0.50 (31%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).