Sat, Oct 26, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
San Jose Sharks 3, Vegas Golden Knights 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 04 | 211 | 111 | 326 |
| VGK | 322 | 215 | 25 | 742 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:57VGKTanner PearsonAssists: William Karlsson, Alexander Holtz · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 3:47VGKJack EichelAssists: Mark Stone, Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 16:46VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Tomas Hertl, Pavel Dorofeyev · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 10:13SJSMikael GranlundAssists: William Eklund, Mario Ferraro · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–3
- P2 11:10VGKWilliam KarlssonSHGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 19:26VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Mark Stone · Slap, 0.14 xG1–5
- P2 19:41SJSNico SturmUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 11:10VGKMark StoneAssists: Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–6
- P3 13:29SJSLuke KuninAssists: Fabian Zetterlund · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–6
- P3 17:07VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:09VGKZach Whitecloud: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:24SJSLuke Kunin: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:20VGKShea Theodore: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:09SJSBarclay Goodrow: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:39SJSJack Thompson: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:36SJSCarl Grundstrom: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Granlund – Eklund7:58
xG 0.79–0.24 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 1–2
- Goodrow – Dellandrea – Smith6:39
xG 0.33–0.22 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Grundstrom – Sturm – Gushchin3:35
xG 0.02–0.07 (19%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Zetterlund – Eklund4:33
xG 0.06–0.23 (19%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Rutta13:56
xG 1.52–0.81 (65%)attempts 21–12goals 3–3
- Ceci – Walman14:30
xG 0.68–0.89 (43%)attempts 17–19goals 0–1
- Thrun – Thompson13:35
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Eichel10:54
xG 1.03–0.14 (88%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Hertl – Howden – Dorofeyev10:52
xG 0.83–0.08 (91%)attempts 21–7goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Pearson – Holtz8:46
xG 0.22–0.52 (30%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Brisson9:33
xG 0.16–0.61 (20%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestTheodore – Whitecloud16:05
xG 0.87–0.34 (72%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- McNabb – Korczak14:20
xG 0.73–0.48 (60%)attempts 21–17goals 3–0
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin14:25
xG 0.69–1.30 (35%)attempts 14–18goals 2–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).